Manual Strategies

I optimised 129 parameter sets on half of 16,926 EURUSD bars and ran the winners on the half they had never seen. The grid champion kept 0.8% of its result, and the ranking between halves correlated at 0.063.

Four common free arrow logics, 16,926 EURUSD 5-minute bars, no discretion. Win rates of 43.8% to 46.7%, and every one of them negative after a single pip of spread. One exception, and it is the slowest arrow on the longest hold.

One rule, nine ways of trading it. Entering half an hour late barely mattered. Closing at +5 pips lifted the win rate to 55.5% and turned a 308-pip gain into a 145-pip loss.

I ran 2,000 coin-flip portfolios of 300 EURUSD trades each to build a yardstick, then made five popular entry rules play against it. Four of them landed below the average dice throw. Only one cleared the 95th percentile.

The same breakout rule made +1.08 pips per trade across all 24 hours and +2.65 at 01:00 UTC. The best hour of the day was not a news hour, and two hours were outright losing.

The US release candle really is two and a half times the size of a normal EURUSD bar. Its direction predicted the next 30 minutes only 49.2% of the time. A mechanical breakout made +2.13 pips per trade — but only with small targets.

Same entry every time, only the stop moved. Results ran from -3.99 to +3.38 pips per trade, and the setting with the highest win rate was the one that lost the most money.

The cloud breakout was the only single entry rule that finished positive in my tests. But a thick cloud protected nothing, and 30-minute holds were the worst result in the whole study.

The ADX above 25 rule made my EMA crossover system worse, not better, across 16,926 real EURUSD bars. Here is what each threshold actually did.