Free Forex Indicators, MetaTrader Tools and Honest Trading Guides
Traded the way Wilder wrote it, Parabolic SAR won 28.5% of 1,182 trades and lost 1,094 pips. The entry was not the problem. Held four hours instead of to the next dot, the same signals made +0.65 pips each.
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The clicks that run the Strategy Tester, the modelling setting that decides whether the report is real, and the Forward checkbox that is off by default and matters more than anything else in the window.
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Textbook settings against settings tuned on history, judged on six weeks neither had seen. Optimised finished +54.2 pips against -86.1 — and on Bollinger bands the optimiser searched 16 combinations and returned the default.
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I optimised 129 parameter sets on half of 16,926 EURUSD bars and ran the winners on the half they had never seen. The grid champion kept 0.8% of its result, and the ranking between halves correlated at 0.063.
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You do not need to download anything — MT4 already ships the two arrow logics that scored best. Here are the input boxes to change, why Deviation is in points and not pips, and the 60-second check for any arrow file you do download.
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The same ZigZag arrows on the same 16,926 bars score 41.5 points apart depending on when you are allowed to click. And 85.5% of the arrows you watch being drawn are erased before the chart you review tomorrow is written.
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Four common free arrow logics, 16,926 EURUSD 5-minute bars, no discretion. Win rates of 43.8% to 46.7%, and every one of them negative after a single pip of spread. One exception, and it is the slowest arrow on the longest hold.
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MT4 already has a Strategy Tester, alerts and free EAs, so code is not the missing piece. Spread is. A one-pip spread removed 91% of the best result I have measured, and at 1.5 pips it went negative.
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One rule, nine ways of trading it. Entering half an hour late barely mattered. Closing at +5 pips lifted the win rate to 55.5% and turned a 308-pip gain into a 145-pip loss.
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