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Engulfing bars, pin bars and stars coded as rules and run over 16,926 EURUSD 5-minute bars. All three were followed by a continuation of the prior move more often than a reversal, and 60% of engulfing bars formed with no move left to reverse. The market printed exactly 822 bullish and 822 bearish engulfings. Doji describes 20% of all bars, every one of them with a body of exactly zero.
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Nine setting combinations, one rule, the same 16,926 bars. Three were positive before costs and none after. The signal line mattered more than the averages — 12/26/18 beat 12/26/9 beat 12/26/5, cleanly. Plus what MT4 is really drawing when you add MACD, and why the strong-signal filter fell apart.
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The MACD zero line is not similar to an EMA 12/26 crossover — it is that crossover, on all 677 signals, with zero disagreements. So MACD adds one thing: a signal line that fires 2.2 times as often and a median 25 minutes earlier. That head start is worth 1.35 pips, and the extra trades cost more than it pays.
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MACD 12/26/9 on 16,926 EURUSD 5-minute bars produced 1,482 crossings, one an hour, split exactly 741 up and 741 down. The median signal was cancelled by the opposite signal after 45 minutes, and only 0.5% lasted four hours. Every holding period lost money before spread; traded always-in, it won 24.6% and lost 913 pips.
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MT4 has RSI but no divergence, so every rule is your decision. Twelve setting combinations on 16,926 bars: three-bar swing points lost money, five-bar swing points made it, and the stop mattered more than any of them — 20/40 was worth +5.31 pips a trade, 10/10 was worth minus.
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Same bars, same two-hour hold. Divergence made +133 pips across 92 trades; the textbook exit from 30/70 lost 231 across 436. After spread the gap is 708 pips — and hidden divergence, the continuation version, finished negative too.
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104 divergences on 16,926 EURUSD 5-minute bars. Entered at the pivot, they won 66.3% and made 544 pips. Entered at the bar you could actually see them, the same signals won 50.0% and made 133. The 25-minute wait for confirmation costs three quarters of the edge.
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MT4 gives you Step and Maximum, and only one of them does anything. Eight settings tested on 16,926 bars: the best was 0.02 with the Maximum lowered to 0.1, and the popular advice to slow it down was the worst of the set.
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Two trend indicators pointed the same way four days out of five. At a two-hour hold SAR was 1.34 pips better; at eight hours Supertrend was 2.89 pips better. Neither is better — they are better at different holding times.
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