Manual Strategies

The same Donchian breakouts traded twice, with the Turtle channel exit and with a fixed stop and target, on EURUSD and gold. The Turtle exit won 4 of 8 comparisons, none outside the noise, and all four EURUSD runs lost after the spread.

Same bars, same overbought and oversold exit, EURUSD and gold, M5 and M15. Stochastic RSI gave 3 to 4 times as many signals, correlated with RSI at only about 0.5, and lost more per trade than RSI on three of four charts.

Same bars, same EMA cross, EURUSD and gold, M5 and M15. Aroon and ADX called different bars trending four times in ten, agreed on direction about 80% of the time, and the Aroon filter did worse than no filter on three charts.

Same bars, same exit, EURUSD and gold, M5 and M15. CCI 20 and RSI 14 were near copies of each other, CCI fired 3.4 to 4.4 times as many bounce signals, and its extra ones lost more. On the zero line CCI was slightly ahead.

Same swing levels, same exit, EURUSD and gold, M5 and M15. The sweep fade lost more than the breakout on every chart, before and after cost, and following the sweep wick lost least of all.

Trade with the gap on the retest, or against it on the fill? Same FVGs, same exit, EURUSD and gold, M5 and M15. The fill won before cost on 3 charts, the retest lost on 3, and the spread decided the rest.

The same 2 ATR band around EMA 20 traded both ways on EURUSD and gold, M5 and M15. Fading the touch and following the close outside lost before cost on all 8 runs, and a middle-line exit only shrank the bounce’s loss.

H1 and H4 moving average pairs against the same pairs 12 and 48 times longer on M5. They agreed on 97.4% to 99.8% of hours and crossed as often, but with 8 trades a few hours of timing turned +44.4 pips into -6.7 on EURUSD.

EMA and SMA crosses 9/21, 20/50 and 50/200 plus a 20 EMA pullback on EURUSD and gold H1 and H4, built from M5. 33 of 52 swing runs had under 20 trades, EURUSD H1 lost on all 9 judged lines, and gold H1 never beat random entries.