Elder-Ray vs MACD: Bears Power Turned First on All 4 Charts, and Only MACD’s Zero Line Passed, on EURUSD M15
Key takeaways
- Elder-Ray (Bulls Power and Bears Power) and MACD are both built from exponential moving averages and both come with MetaTrader. I compared them on EURUSD and gold, M5 and M15, with the same exit for every trade.
- Bulls plus Bears Power moved with the MACD histogram at a 0.77 to 0.81 correlation on all 4 charts. They are close cousins, not two views of the market.
- Elder-Ray turned first more often on all 4 charts: its zero cross came before the matching MACD zero cross 47% to 53% of the time, MACD first 39% to 46%, usually by just 1 or 2 bars.
- Earlier came with noise. Elder-Ray’s zero cross fired about 4 times as often as MACD’s, up to 44 times a trading day on EURUSD M5.
- The only run of the 16 that passed all three checks was MACD’s zero line on EURUSD M15, +1.51 pips a trade on 144 trades. Elder-Ray’s best was +$1.36 an ounce on gold M15, positive in both halves but below the random benchmark.
Alexander Elder used MACD and his own Elder-Ray side by side, and many traders still do. The question is simple: if both lines are built from EMAs, does the second one add a new signal, or the same signal sooner, or just more of them? The full Elder-Ray test is in Elder-Ray Bulls and Bears Power tested; this page puts the two indicators side by side.
How are Elder-Ray and MACD built?
| Elder-Ray 13 | MACD 12,26,9 | |
|---|---|---|
| Lines | Bulls Power = high minus EMA 13; Bears Power = low minus EMA 13 | MACD = EMA 12 minus EMA 26; signal = EMA 9 of MACD |
| What it compares | The bar’s ends with one short EMA | A fast EMA with a slower EMA |
| Zero line means | The whole bar is above or below the EMA | The fast EMA has crossed the slow one |
| Classic signal | EMA rising and Bears Power negative but rising (buy), mirror for sell | MACD crosses its signal line |
Add Bulls Power and Bears Power together and you get twice the distance of the bar’s middle from the EMA 13. That is a price-minus-average line, the same family as MACD and the Awesome Oscillator, which we compared with MACD last week.
How was it tested?
- Data: EURUSD M5 from June 3 to August 26, 2026, 16,926 bars; gold M5 from June 16 to August 26, 13,736 bars. M15 built from the same bars.
- Comparison: correlation of Bulls plus Bears Power with the MACD line and with the MACD histogram; and for every Elder-Ray signal, the nearest MACD signal in the same direction within 24 bars, to see which came first.
- Trades: Elder-Ray zero cross (first bar fully above or below the EMA) against MACD zero cross; Elder’s classic setup against the MACD signal-line cross. Stop 1.5 ATR, target 3 ATR, 48 bars at most. Cost 1 pip on EURUSD and $0.30 an ounce on gold, from spread and swap costs in MT4. A run passes if it is positive after cost, in both halves (split July 15), and beats 95% of 200 random-entry runs.
How closely do Elder-Ray and MACD move?
| Correlation of Bulls + Bears Power with | EURUSD M5 | EURUSD M15 | Gold M5 | Gold M15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MACD histogram (MACD minus signal) | 0.78 | 0.81 | 0.77 | 0.79 |
| MACD line | 0.68 | 0.68 | 0.65 | 0.66 |
Elder-Ray tracks the MACD histogram more closely than the MACD line itself. Both measure how far price has run ahead of a recent average, and both react to the same push; Elder-Ray just uses one short EMA where MACD uses the gap between two.
Which one turns first?
| Matched signals, same direction within 24 bars | EURUSD M5 | EURUSD M15 | Gold M5 | Gold M15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elder-Ray zero cross first | 52.7% | 50.4% | 49.0% | 46.5% |
| MACD zero cross first | 39.3% | 43.2% | 45.1% | 45.7% |
| Same bar | 8.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.9% |
| Elder classic setup first | 50.5% | 48.9% | 48.6% | 45.2% |
| MACD signal-line cross first | 31.9% | 34.9% | 38.9% | 42.5% |
| Typical gap, bars | 1 to 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Elder-Ray came first more often on all 4 charts, and the lead was widest on EURUSD M5. But the gap was usually a single bar, and on gold M15 the two were almost even. An earlier signal is only worth having if it is the same signal, and here is the catch:
| Signals in the sample | EURUSD M5 | EURUSD M15 | Gold M5 | Gold M15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elder-Ray zero cross | 2,653 | 784 | 1,857 | 567 |
| MACD zero cross | 672 | 189 | 450 | 134 |
| Elder-Ray zero crosses a trading day | 44.2 | 13.5 | 35.7 | 11.3 |
Elder-Ray fired about 4 times as many zero crosses as MACD on every chart. Every MACD zero cross had an Elder-Ray zero cross within 24 bars, usually several of them: about four Elder-Ray signals for each MACD one. The extra ones were bars that poked across a 13-bar EMA and came back.
Which made more money?
| Net per trade after cost | EURUSD M5, pips | EURUSD M15, pips | Gold M5, $/oz | Gold M15, $/oz |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elder-Ray zero cross | -1.16 (1,007) | -0.59 (292) | -0.00 (658) | +1.36 (196) |
| MACD zero cross | -1.31 (502) | +1.51 (144) | -0.60 (337) | +1.95 (96) |
| Elder classic setup | -1.28 (691) | -1.75 (259) | -1.32 (605) | +0.34 (180) |
| MACD signal-line cross | -1.38 (854) | -1.25 (238) | -0.39 (557) | +0.82 (173) |
Trades in brackets. Elder-Ray’s zero cross lost less than MACD’s on both M5 charts, where waiting for MACD did not pay. On both M15 charts MACD’s zero line did better. On EURUSD M15 it was the only run of the 16 in this comparison that passed every check: +2.17 pips a trade in the first half, +1.03 in the second, and above the best 5% of random runs (+0.04). On gold M15 it was positive in both halves too, but on 96 trades it could not clear the random benchmark of +$3.87. That fits the MACD zero line as a trend filter: fewer, slower signals that wait for a real change.
Elder’s classic setup lost to the plain MACD signal-line cross on 3 of 4 charts. Its extra conditions did not pick better trades, they picked earlier ones.
Which should I use?
- Not both. At 0.77 to 0.81 correlation with the MACD histogram, a second line from the same family is a second opinion from the same person.
- On M15, the MACD zero line was the better of the two. It was the only rule here that passed, on EURUSD M15, and it beat Elder-Ray on gold M15 too.
- On M5, both lost more than a pip a trade on EURUSD. Getting the turn one bar earlier did not pay for the spread; see indicator lag vs whipsaw for why that trade-off rarely works.
- Other periods are in the settings guide. 18 Elder-Ray settings per chart are in Bulls and Bears Power settings for MT4, and MACD settings in MACD settings for MT4.
Frequently asked questions
Is Elder-Ray better than MACD?
Not in this test. Elder-Ray turned a bar earlier more often, but fired about 4 times as many signals. The only rule that passed all checks was MACD’s zero line on EURUSD M15.
Are Elder-Ray and MACD the same?
Close. Bulls plus Bears Power moved with the MACD histogram at a 0.77 to 0.81 correlation on EURUSD and gold, M5 and M15. Both measure how far price is from an exponential average.
Which is faster, Bears Power or MACD?
Elder-Ray. Its zero cross came first in 47% to 53% of matched signals, MACD’s in 39% to 46%, usually by 1 bar on M15 and 1 to 2 bars on M5.
Can I use Elder-Ray with MACD as a filter?
You can, but they mostly agree already. When MACD crossed its signal line, Elder’s classic setup fired within 3 bars 41% to 73% of the time.
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