Classic vs Fibonacci vs Camarilla vs Woodie Pivots: The Camarilla R4 Breakout Lost on All 4 Charts, and Breaking R1 Lost on 15 of 16

Search for pivot points and you get four formulas, each with fans. Camarilla traders say their R3 and S3 are the reversal zone and R4 and S4 the breakout trigger. Fibonacci traders put the lines at 38.2% and 61.8% of yesterday’s range. Woodie gives today’s open, or yesterday’s close, more weight. The basic test of daily pivots is in pivot points tested. Here the question is narrower: does the formula change anything?

How do the four pivot types differ?

Camarilla is the odd one: its lines are built around yesterday’s close, not P, and its R1 and R2 are so close to the close that price crosses them almost every day. That is why Camarilla traders work with R3/S3 and R4/S4, and that is what I tested as its first and second line.

How was it tested?

• Data: EURUSD M5, June 3 to August 26, 2026, 16,926 bars; gold M5, June 16 to August 26, 13,736 bars; M15 from the same bars. Day starts at 21:00 UTC.
• Bounce test: at the first touch of each line, which came first within 48 candles: 1 ATR back or 1 ATR through. Compared with the same lines moved by a random amount, twenty random sets per chart.
• Four rules per type: fade the first line at its first touch, trade a close beyond the first line, and the same two for the second line. Stop 1.5 ATR, target 3 ATR, 48 bars, one trade at a time, as in Donchian Channel tested. Cost 1 pip and $0.30 an ounce.

Which pivot type gets touched most often?

The ranking follows distance and nothing else. Camarilla R3 sits 0.275 of yesterday’s range from the close, Fibonacci R1 0.382 of it from P, Classic R1 usually further out. The nearer the line, the more days reach it. Resistance was touched more than support on almost every row partly because both markets ended the test higher, gold by about $325.

Which pivot type holds best?

All four R and S lines of each type pooled. Classic came out above the random lines on all four charts, which sounds like a winner until you look at the size: under 3 points on three charts, on about 55 touches each. With 55 touches, a gap of 13 points either way is ordinary noise. Woodie had the widest swing, from +3.3 to −7.1. No type held clearly better than lines drawn at random, the same verdict as for support and resistance vs Fibonacci.

Is it better to fade or break a pivot line?

Pips on EURUSD, dollars an ounce on gold. The break lost on 15 of 16 pairs; the only exception was Classic on gold M5, +$1.03. The fade lost less than the break in 15 of 16, the exception being Woodie on EURUSD M15 by 0.03 pips. On EURUSD both still lost everywhere, and the best fade, Camarilla R3/S3 on M5, gave back 0.53 pips a trade.

The gold fades in profit were not proof either. Gold rose for most of the test, and random entries with the same exit reached +$1.5 to +$7.0 at their 95th percentile there. Only the Fibonacci fade on gold M5 cleared that line, one rule out of 54 tried, which is what chance alone tends to produce.

Does the Camarilla breakout work?

This is the rule Camarilla is known for: a close beyond R4 or S4 means the range day is over and a trend day has started. It lost on all four charts, and on gold M5 it was the worst of 32 settings. Only 1 trade in 4 to 1 in 3 reached the target before the stop.

What makes it odd is the bounce row. At R4, price usually did go through: only 20% to 40% of first touches bounced. The level was broken, as the rule expects, and the trade still lost. A break of 1 ATR and a move of 3 ATR are not the same thing. Price pushed through, stalled and came back to the 1.5 ATR stop, the pattern seen in liquidity sweep vs breakout.

Which pivot type would I pick?

• The formula matters less than the distance. Pick the type whose lines sit where you want to look: Camarilla R3/S3 for nearby levels, Classic or Woodie for wider ones.
• Do not trade the break of any pivot line on its own. It lost on 15 of 16 pairs, and the Camarilla R4 breakout lost on all four charts.
• If you must use a line, fade it with a stop beyond it, and expect a small loss on EURUSD. No fade was profitable on EURUSD after the spread.
• Get the server time right before comparing types. A different day start moves every line; see pivot points settings for MT4.

Frequently asked questions

Which is better, Classic or Camarilla pivot points?

Neither held clearly better than random lines. Classic was above the random lines on all four charts but by only 0.8 to 6.0 points; Camarilla was between −3.7 and +1.1.

Do Camarilla pivot points work?

The Camarilla breakout above R4 or below S4 lost on all four charts tested, −2.62 to −4.99 a trade after cost. Fading R3/S3 lost less but was not profitable on EURUSD.

Are Fibonacci pivot points better than standard pivots?

Their first lines are nearer, so they were touched on 44% to 60% of days against 26% to 49% for Classic R1/S1. They did not hold better: −3.0 to +4.5 points against random lines.

What is the difference between Woodie and Classic pivots?

Woodie gives yesterday’s close double weight when computing P. In this test its lines were the least touched and had the widest swing against random lines, −7.1 to +3.3 points.

Should I trade the pivot breakout or the bounce?

The bounce lost less on 15 of 16 type and chart pairs, but on EURUSD both lost after a 1-pip spread.